“ Yes, it is possible that UK supply capacity disappeared despite relatively low increases in unemployment and liquidations, that a large and ambitious fiscal consolidation undertaken at a time of already low interest rates will not be a drag on consumption, that declining unit labor costs do not presage a meaningful decline in inflation, and so on. It is also possible that our recent snows mean that global warming is not happening, and recent performance in matches mean that Newcastle will win the Premiership. Possible, but I would not bet on it, and I certainly would not make policy on the basis of such a forecast.
— Adam Posen [PDF] with my bold
